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With nine goals in his first seven Premier League games, Pep Guardiola's attacker Erling Haaland has started the season in spectacular form.

Although this isn't his most impressive beginning to a season - he found the net 11 times in his initial seven matches in two seasons ago and double digits last year - it nonetheless positions him with a three-goal lead in the early running for this term's Premier League Golden Boot.

The fact that none of his nine goals have been penalties makes it even more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Naturally, injury could definitively intervene in the destination of the Golden Boot, but there are two key factors why Haaland is so heavily favored for the award so early in the season.

To begin with, the quantity of strikes he has thus far netted - and, of similar importance, the total and standard of chances he is getting.

Furthermore, the sluggish beginning his usual rivals for the award have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A player's expected goals number (xG) indicates how many goals a Premier League player has traditionally converted from the quantity and caliber of opportunities he's received.

It is not a statistic haphazardly selected by data analysts, but by Premier League history.

And if we look at players' xG in the Premier League so far this term from normal play, the Norwegian striker is getting so many more good opportunities to convert than every other footballer.

Actually, even if Haaland didn't excel at finishing chances than any other player in the division, he would still have scored over double the amount goals as everyone else.

Scoring Situation Assessment

This is illustrated by breaking down the total and standard of chances that players have had in the English first division so far.

Haaland has registered 29 attempts so far this season, twelve additional compared to all other attackers.

That is actually not especially surprising for him - he had previously registered more non-penalty shots at this juncture in the previous two campaigns (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

What's particularly unprecedented even for him is the standard of scoring situations he has had this season. His attempts have had an chance quality metric of 0.27 per attempt.

What that figure means is that footballers have traditionally scored the attempts he's taken at a 27% success ratio.

Of players to take at least 10 shots, only Blues playmaker Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to convert per attempt - due to a few simple finishes against West Ham United and Brighton.

Haaland's xG of 0.27 is much higher than the 0.17 xG per shot he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

To summarize, the scoring situations he has had in 2025-26 have been considerably more favorable to convert from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Past Performance Analysis

Starting a season so impressively is, as noted earlier, not uncommon for Haaland. After seven games last season he had netted ten times - four additional compared to anyone else and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

However, it was the Liverpool forward who secured the scoring title with 29 goals, seven more than the Manchester City striker.

In the new campaign, while Haaland has started in blistering form, Salah has scored half the number goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this stage last season.

Actually this has been the most subdued opening to a Premier League term the Egypt forward has made.

Rivals' Slow Start

It's not merely Salah who has begun modestly either. When examining at the top 11 scorers in the Premier League last term, Haaland has netted the same number goals as the other 10 players collectively so far.

Whether because of fitness issues - multiple prominent forwards - long-running transfer sagas in a specific forward's circumstances or simply because their sides have underperformed (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's potential challengers in the battle for the scoring title have underperformed so far.

Continental Scoring Title Battle

While Haaland looks the obvious frontrunner for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the Continental scoring award that is given to the attacker netting the highest number in the continent's elite divisions?

That contest is considerably more open at this early stage because two elite attackers have similarly opened in superb fashion, with eleven and nine strikes correspondingly.

The fact Haaland has netted on numerous occasions and has the highest xG of the trio despite not attempting any from the penalty spot renders him the frontrunner.

However, because the two continental superstars are two of the best goal-scorers in continental soccer in terms of overperforming their xG, the race is certainly on.